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AN ANALYSIS ON DRIVING FACTORS FOR CO₂ EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY USE IN TOKYO AND SEOUL BY FACTOR DECOMPOSITION METHOD

Shobhakar DHAKAL¹, Shinji KANEKO², Hidefumi IMURA³

1 Dr. Eng., Researcher, Urban Environmental Management Project, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

(3-9-30, Asano, Kokurakita-ku, Kitakyushu, Japan, 802-0001)

2 Member of JSCE, Dr. Eng., Associate Professor, IDEC, Hiroshima University

(1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, Japan, 739-8529)

3 Member of JSCE, Dr. Eng., Professor, Dept. of Urban Env. Studies, Nagoya University

(Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Japan 464-8603)

This paper estimates and analyzes CO₂ emissions from energy use in Tokyo and Seoul and analyzes performance of cities in East Asia, measured by CO₂ emissions per capita and CO₂ emissions per unit gross regional product (GRP). The contributions of selected driving factors for total and sectoral CO₂ emissions are also investigated by factor decomposition method. The results suggest that the performance of Tokyo is outstanding in comparison to major Japanese large cities, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, major OECD and major non-OECD countries. Income effect was primarily found responsible for majority of CO₂ emissions in Tokyo and Seoul in high growth period, i.e. 1970-90 for Tokyo and 1990-97 for Seoul. Despite economic recession, continued CO₂ emissions in Tokyo in 1990-98 is largely attributed to energy intensity effect. Similarly, the contributions of fuel quality effect, energy intensity effect, vehicle

utilization effect, household income, labor productivity effect and scale effect etc. are analyzed for sectoral CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: Global warming and city, CO₂ emission, mega-city, factor decomposition